--- title: Why You Are Overconfident in Your Forecast and What To Do About It | The Sales Blog description: It is easy to believe that you are going to win the big deal you are pursuing. There is evidence available to you that supports this belief. For example, the contacts with whom you have met all agree that your solution is very good and that it is what they need. They’ve also been complementary, […] image: https://www.thesalesblog.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/shutterstock_278161139.jpg --- ### [Now booking SKO meetings for 2026/27! 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There is evidence available to you that supports this belief. For example, the contacts with whom you have met all agree that your solution is very good and that it is what they need. They’ve also been complementary, telling you that they’re impressed with what they’ve seen and heard so far. More still, they continue to ask you for more information. You know they have seen other potential partners, [your competitors](https://amzn.to/2qzlLel), but you are doubtful any of your competitors propose a threat when things are going so well. This deal looks like opportunities you’ve won in the past, and things are lining up nicely. You have no cause for concern, and your confidence is exceedingly high. Then, without warning, you discover you lost to a competitor. ## Evidence of the Non-Existent The lack of evidence of a competitive threat does not prove that there isn’t one. We tend to mistake something unknown for evidence of it not existing. It is important to know which contacts support change and who opposes any change. The fact that you don’t know who opposes the change you are recommending doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Nor does it mean they aren’t working to slow things down or stop them altogether. Equally important, you need to know who prefers you and who might support your competitor. The fact that you’ve built a coalition of stakeholders that believe that you and your solution are exactly right is not evidence that there is not another faction supporting your competitor. For every action, there tends to be an equal and opposite reaction, and this rule seems to be true inside groups. Support from someone with a title that suggests they are “the decision-maker” is helpful—[and necessary](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/the-new-rules-of-building-consensus)—to winning a deal. It’s something you should seek if you want to win big deals. But the support of a key stakeholder is not evidence that the key “influencers” are going to get what they want and need, regardless of whether the “decision-maker” likes you the most. [Influence](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/the-power-of-invisible-forces) is invisible, even though it often provides clues of its existence for those brave enough to look for them. ## A Hedge Against Overconfidence The reason we tend towards overconfidence in deals is because we see positive evidence without seeing evidence to the contrary. Because something is opaque doesn’t mean it is nonexistent, nor does it indicate that is a non-factor. Overconfidence, in many cases, is inversely proportional to win rates. As a [hedge](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/a-hedge-against-unavoidable-downside-risks) against your overconfidence, spend as much time looking for the ways you will lose a deal as you do talking about why you are going to win. ###### Tags: [Competition](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/tag/competition) [2018](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/tag/2018) Post by [Anthony Iannarino](https://www.thesalesblog.com/blog/author/anthony-iannarino) on September 19, 2018 Written and edited by human brains and human hands. ![Anthony Iannarino](https://www.thesalesblog.com/hubfs/ai-blog-profile-crop.jpg) Anthony Iannarino is an American writer. He has published daily at [thesalesblog.com](https://www.thesalesblog.com) for more than 14 years, amassing over 5,300 articles and making this platform a destination for salespeople and sales leaders. Anthony is also the author of four best-selling books documenting modern sales methodologies and a fifth book for sales leaders seeking revenue growth. His latest book for an even wider audience is titled, The Negativity Fast: Proven Techniques to Increase Positivity, Reduce Fear, and Boost Success. Anthony speaks to sales organizations worldwide, delivering cutting-edge sales strategies and tactics that work in this ever-evolving B2B landscape. He also provides workshops and seminars. Connect with Anthony on LinkedIn, X or Youtube. 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You were put here to do something and to flourish. You’re here to reach your full potential and to make a difference. [![DOWNLOAD EBOOK](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/2922376/5746f431-45b9-48ee-a8d8-e9a950e5ab3f.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/2922376/5746f431-45b9-48ee-a8d8-e9a950e5ab3f) ## Are You Ready To Solve Your Sales Challenges? ![Anthony-Solve-Sales](https://www.thesalesblog.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Anthony-Solve-Sales.png?width=290&height=221&name=Anthony-Solve-Sales.png) Hi, I’m Anthony. I help sales teams make the changes needed to create more opportunities & crush their sales targets. What we’re doing right now **is working**, even in this challenging economy. **Would you like some help?** [![Solve for Sales](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/2922376/d3a4938b-2008-4a27-8b44-7b2223f6d035.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/2922376/d3a4938b-2008-4a27-8b44-7b2223f6d035) ### Join my Weekly Newsletter for Sales Tips Join 100,000+ sales professionals in my weekly newsletter and get my *Guide to Becoming a Sales Hustler* eBook for FREE! --- ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org/", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Anthony Iannarino" }, "dateModified" : "2023-02-22T11:28:36 AM", "datePublished" : "2018-09-19 21:00:16", "description" : "It is easy to believe that you are going to win the big deal you are pursuing. There is evidence available to you that supports this belief. For example, the contacts with whom you have met all agree that your solution is very good and that it is what they need. 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