Did We Avoid a Recession? A Look at the Job Numbers and Economic Signals

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Last month, the Department of Labor revised a years’ worth of data for new jobs added. It turns out there had been an overcount of 818,000 jobs between March 2023 and March 2024, and the correction signals that job growth has been worse than previously reported. The corrected numbers are 28 percent lower. This morning, the latest job numbers were released, and they were below expectations. This continues recent trends, which could signal that we are already in a recession—an economic reality I believe we are facing.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Impact

On September 18, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. While most experts predict a 0.25 percent reduction, some anticipate a 0.50 percent cut. This decision will challenge the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been under pressure since $7 trillion flooded the economy during the Covid-19 pandemic. An additional $2 trillion was introduced under the Biden administration in an attempt to combat inflation—despite the economic principle that increasing the monetary supply is not a solution for inflation.

Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve on Employment?

The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain 2 percent inflation and ensure a stable job market. However, given the current economic indicators, we could be on the brink of a recession—or potentially facing a deeper economic crisis—as the dollar weakens.

Political Silence in Times of Economic Crisis

Amidst these economic challenges, there is a noticeable lack of discourse from politicians and presidential candidates. These are wicked problems—complex, multi-faceted issues that resist straightforward solutions.

Lessons from Past Recessions: Strategies for Sales Leaders and Salespeople

Having lived through multiple recessions, I’ve learned valuable lessons about navigating tough economic times:

1992 Recession: My first recession experience, which followed the Gulf War.
2001 Dot-com Bubble: As Vice President of Sales, I faced the challenge of maintaining revenue goals during the tech market crash.
2008 Great Recession: Our revenue was cut in half overnight. It was a single $2 million deal, secured by a determined salesperson, that kept us afloat. The labor market took years to recover.
2020 Covid-19 Pandemic: A global crisis that introduced unprecedented challenges and uncertainty.

Advice for Sales Leaders: Keep Selling in Tough Times

If you are a sales leader or manager, it's crucial to ensure your team continues the hard work of winning deals, even when the environment is challenging. Keep your salesforce motivated and positive—never let them stop selling.

Advice for Salespeople: Persistence Is Key

For salespeople, keep making your calls, stay in touch with your clients, and keep pushing forward, no matter what the economic landscape looks like. Deals are still out there to be won, especially if you focus on lowering clients' costs—without necessarily lowering prices.

Conclusion: Latest Job Report Insights

The latest jobs report showed a drop of 142,000 from the expected 161,000, with the last two months revised down by 84,000. These numbers provide a stark reminder of the current economic uncertainty and the need for proactive strategies in sales and business management.